During the market hours my focus is on trading the futures but of course, I am preparing my swings and options before market open. It’s such an interesting period of my trading journey. I like it.
And while I am more and more learning to include the big picture in my plans the market turned down as expected in sharp moves intraday.
What level will be reached?
Sideways or a little pullback. Yes, I was right last week. Now the big question is where the reversal will take place:
A) The bulls could buy the dip at the current level of $332 already on Monday. Then, I would expect a small move to the downside intraday before the price moves in the direction of Friday’s high.
B) A turn to the upside after reaching the lower limit of the expected move at around $325 is not a strong support but also possible.
C) Or price will fall to $320 to the last low, the bears will try to close below and the bulls will catch many stops to buy cheap.
All 3 moves are possible. But for me, it is more likely to see (A) or (C). The first signal will give us the futures opening in about 5 hours. My personal opinion is a probability of 60% for (A) and 40% for (C).
Portfolio update with two reached targets
This week I did not enter any new swings but I sold credit bull spreads on SPY, AAPL and BA.
And while the markets fell down one of my swings “crashed” up and reached my two targets at one day. And as you can see, my third partial is also in a good high profit zone.
You’re not down and expected a move downwards sooner or later?
I hope so. I am not hedging anything but I should learn it urgently. I do give away a part of my profits because I have no “insurances”. But with learning more about options I will get deeper into protective puts or constructions like the risk twist spread or other crazy names. 🙂
Like I wrote in the introduction I am paying more attention on the big picture and I do not read any news flow but I wrote a code to get the schedule of the US president and the most important economical events during the week.
Also, I calculated the average daily returns of the main indexes by day of the week. And I recognized that Monday and Tuesday are weak, Wednesday and Thursday are the strongest days and Friday is the loser. Let’s see if I can use it as advantage for my trading.
Enjoy your week and happy trades!
