Yes, we had green candles last week after a while! I thought I won’t see any this year. 😉
But what we are all asking now if this is just a pullback or is the bottom already reached?
Bounce at -36.01%
In the weekly chart of the ES (future of the S&P 500) you can see the move back to the 200 SMA and 250 EMA. And now we should pay attention on those levels: Will price break above on a second test or did we see the lower high already?
With a look on the daily chart, it is likely to have a support on the -30% level to then touch or test the -20% level. But if -30% will break again to the downside, we’ll reach the -40% with a high probability.
Of course, the first partials are bought for long term but also many traders entered their short swings the last two days.
It will be an exciting next week!
Here we see the enormous move upwards in the VIX in the daily chart (last week in the monthly):
But nobody can imagine another higher high.
So, maybe the markets just calm down and the market will move sideways for a long time. This is what is probable in my opinion.
Only futures trading
The last week was another week without any changes in my portfolios. And I only traded the futures – mostly MNQ but some trades also in MES.
The article about the futures will take some more time. But I will share some thoughts in the weekly article at first.
This week I had a profit of +$1,292.86 after costs in my paper account. That feels good. All trades where based on a plan, mostly with only one contract, repeatable. And scalable.
But I have to trade more with real money. Because of the increased margin based on the high volatility I could live trade only one day and after one trade with a loss of -$30 I was under the margin limit and had to stop again. So, I added another +$100 to my account. I hope that I can live trade every day next week.
See my cumulative P&L here:
I like the futures because I can focus on one instrument. No scanning. Also, my swing trading will change a lot. I will more focus on stocks I know than trading another stock every day.
Final words
Now as I wrote about the current market situation is just a pullback or the bottom is reached, I again ask you: What do you think? What will happen?
I am looking forward to your comments!
Stay healthy, stay green!
