Do you know what I noticed? Too often in the past I expected bullish moves. So, you’ll know the exact point of trend change to the upside: That’s when I will write about bearish moves in the coming week. 🙂
But it’s not yet the case. Hm, maybe. You can read about my opinion about this bear market in the next section:
Down more than -30%
This week I decided to switch to the ES for the weekly overview. This is the future of the S&P 500, similar to the SPY. Here you can watch the weekly chart of the ES:
The market is down more than -30% from the last high. And there are no patterns in the daily chart for a bounce yet. The next strong support is between 2580 and 2600.
In the hourly chart you can recognize support around the -30% and currently at 2275.
If the 2275 will break on Monday significantly then I expect the market to get to 2600 or even lower to the -40% level before turning upwards. But if we’ll see strong bullish moves on Monday the last days’ ranging market could be the (first) bottom.
Here you can see the monthly chart of the VIX (volatility of the stocks in the S&P 500):
You’ll notice the exceptional values at the same levels of the market crash of 2008/2009.
But pay attention on the low of the markets being about 4 months after the VIX high. This would mean that we’ll see the lows in July!
What did I do last week?
I did not change anything in my long term account or any swing trades. I just traded the futures everyday. Just in paper account because for some hours the margin was increased to more than $1600 per contract instead of $50 during times of an average volatility and I could not trade during most of the times.
But my paper week finished with +$663.28 after commissions and fees. On Monday and Friday I had only winning trades. And on Thursday I made some experiments and new kinds of trades that brought me down to around -$850 and after switching to my usual style I recovered and finished the day with +$45.
So, I feel good with my trading at the moment and I hope I can try with real money soon.
Next week I would like to add some of your opinions in the weekly summary after you read about my opinion about this bear market:
Can you send me your expectations?
Or just comment below?
Stay healthy, stay green and thank you for reading my lines!
