More or less 10 green candles for the last 10 days. What’s that? Will there be a huge second move to the downside? In such a critical situation for world economy and world health?
Market Ideas
We made the whole way of the weekly channel from the bottom to the top and on Friday we broke through and above it.
Now we’re again at a resistance level but for me it’s not a very strong one.
So, I would say the probability is around 30% for a pullback down starting on Monday and 70% for a continuation.
I thought the 3200 couldn’t be broken so fast but after all the moving averages were behind it wasn’t a big challenge.
But the big questions is: What role does the FED play in this strong and fast recovery from the low at 2174? And will there be a base for higher prices or will this rally collapse soon?
I couldn’t answer this question, of course. But with the strong candle on Friday there’s no signal yet for a reversal. So, we have to wait if Monday will bring us a Tweezer top, a continuation or maybe just a doji?
Futures Experiences
My futures trading wasn’t worthwhile on the money side but again on the education side: I recognize that I am too sensible for influences and I have to cut all social media during my trading times.
And I have to keep it more simple. Because when I traded with just a little knowledge I had better performance. Although I developed a much clearer set of setups and I just have to stick to them and trade them more “stupidly”. You all know this.
Last Week:
• Paper account: -$176.44 (2 green days, 3 red days)
This Month (June):
• Paper account: -$176.44
[all amounts after commissions and fees, live account still pausing]
May wasn’t positive and June started with a loss that’s again hard to recover. My winners are too small. And I have to be little more confident to trade within strong trends.
What’s great is my development of a own live charting system with calculated automatic lines – and a different thickness symbolizing the importance.
I like them and setups at those important levels have a very high win rate:
For my trading during the day I am running those live-chart as 5 minute, 15 minute and sometimes 2 minute or 60 minute.
Also, I am still backtesting automated strategy systems (you know my articles here about backtests with Python?). And here I also recognized that simple setups are often better on the long run than complicated ones.
Some of my positions in my stock portfolios are at interesting levels. If we’ll turn down, I probably will close some of them. So, will there be a huge second move to the downside? This will decide about the size of the Portfolio section of next week’s article. 🙂
I wish you really good setups, consistent profits and a big portion of health!
2 Comments
Alessandro
(8. June 2020 - 13:34)Dear Alexander,
what I find really interesting about this article is this concept here: “…simple setups are often better on the long run than complicated ones…”
For me personally, the way I actually see this concept (and the way I think when I choose my setups), is actually to make sure that there is “nothing wrong” with the setup, rather than making sure that “everything is right”. Of course this is a very subjective concept, but I think it makes sense (for me at least).
I’ve seen “perfect” setups being tremendous losers, and setups which had “nothing wrong” being huge winners.
Of course, in the long run, choosing highest quality setups pays off, but there are also many other components which must be taken in mind in my opinion (position size, quantity of setups, diversification, TP placement)… the “perfection” is very relative, so basically it’s always a question of making compromises…
…This was a little though of mine, I felt like sharing it with you, before going for lunch…
Always happy to get new articles from you, they are extremely inspiring for me!
Have a great day, dear Alexander!
Alexander
(10. June 2020 - 13:08)Thanks for sharing these experiences. I think you’re a pro for backtesting and developing new strategies.
And the approach to search for the wrong parts can be found in many articles and about backtesting.
I wish you powerful strategies!