{"id":123,"date":"2019-10-28T11:28:35","date_gmt":"2019-10-28T10:28:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/market-and-us.com\/blog\/?p=123"},"modified":"2019-11-17T11:39:30","modified_gmt":"2019-11-17T10:39:30","slug":"will-spy-breakout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-and-us.com\/blog\/will-spy-breakout-123\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the SPY breakout?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This week wasn’t boring!
Because of the earnings season there were lots of setups<\/strong> I watched and analyzed. And, of course, I had some new positions<\/strong>. But first we will check if the SPY will breakout …<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SPY in good position<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Will SPY breakout happen?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
SPY<\/strong> (daily chart, source: thinkorswim) <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Last week I wrote about<\/a> the channel breakout and that the second breakout has a higher probability of reaching significantly higher price regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And with the candle of Friday we dipped the breakout level<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
ES<\/strong> (daily candles)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

While writing this article on Monday morning (German time) the ES – symbol for the S&P 500 E-Mini Future<\/a> – went a little bit higher than the last high but turned down. It’s still a green candle.
Update<\/span>: About 2 hours before market open the close has reached the high of the candle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For me, those elements together are building a bullish scenario<\/strong> increasing the probability of a SPY breakout to a new all-time-high<\/strong>. It could be a false breakout. So, if anyone wants to trade the SPY I would wait for a pullback to the breakout level.
It remains exciting how the markets will move to the start of the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One short and two long<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Changed positions of my trades<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Immediately on Monday my order for a short position on TCMD<\/strong> was triggered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
TCMD<\/strong> (daily candles, source: thinkorswim)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Wonderful to have 5 signals for shorting<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  • price action was in a perfect down channel,<\/li>
  • reached the resistance of several previous lows,<\/li>
  • touched the 50.0% fibonacci level<\/li>
  • and price formed a tweezer top exactly at the upper channel limit. Also the stochastic was above 70.0<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    The last week’s candles are supporting my idea. I set my target around the last swing low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In addition to this new trade two of my running trades hit their first target<\/strong> (50% at 1R): NVDA<\/strong> on Tuesday and EGP<\/strong> on Thursday. Now both of them are on their way to their second target at 3.5R.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    If you’re wondering why I picked such “crazy” targets: I analyzed all my closed trades for the best combination of two targets<\/strong> and received this relationship (if you are interested post in the comments that I should write about the code for this optimization<\/em>). But it’s so much work with the order setting, changing and the trading journal entries that I broke it down the easy and well-known target at 2R. It’s leading to less profits according to my statistics but the fact that it’s much easier to handle and better for the clear overview<\/strong> of all trades that I compromise here.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    Earnings offer cheap entrances<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    After all those gaps down and big red candles I took two new long term<\/strong> positions: MCD<\/strong> and YUM<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"
    MCD<\/strong> (weekly candles, source: thinkorswim)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    For MCD<\/strong> I watched the down channel for some weeks and because the price reached the bottom of this channel<\/strong> with a gap and a big red candle around 50.0% fibonacci level, I bought the next day within this doji like candle (Wednesday).
    But you can see that the last days of the week MCD fell another -2.5%. But it was a first small position so I will watch where a bottom could be found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"
    YUM<\/strong> (weekly candles, source: thinkorswim)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    For YUM<\/strong> it’s easy: I waited a long time for the next fast down move to and the bounce at the long trend line<\/strong> which can be obviously seen in the weekly and monthly chart.
    It dipped the trend line and I bought my first position. Watching the candlesticks you can recognize that it’s a strong support<\/strong> and the probability is high that price is building its low the current days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    That’s it. Thank you<\/span> for reading my weekly summary today and you would make me happy with a comment of your thoughts<\/span>, ideas and opinions!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    This week wasn’t boring!Because of the earnings season there were lots of setups I watched and analyzed. And, of course, I had some new positions. But first we will check if the SPY will breakout … The SPY in good position Will SPY breakout happen? Last week I wrote about the channel breakout and that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":138,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[45,35,38,8,41,44,9,43,30,34,42],"yoast_head":"\nWill the SPY breakout? - The Market and Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Will SPY breakout soon? 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