{"id":349,"date":"2019-12-29T18:27:29","date_gmt":"2019-12-29T17:27:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/market-and-us.com\/blog\/?p=349"},"modified":"2019-12-29T18:27:29","modified_gmt":"2019-12-29T17:27:29","slug":"best-returns-for-your-happy-new-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-and-us.com\/blog\/best-returns-for-your-happy-new-year-349\/","title":{"rendered":"Best returns for your Happy New Year"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Last week I decided to show you my performance of 2019<\/strong><\/a>. Maybe I will write down the percentages every 6 months<\/strong>. It’s not only interesting for you but it’s a good process for me, too.
And today I want to wish you best returns for your Happy New Year<\/strong> 2020 and I talk a little bit about the market situation and my focus for 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The markets in 2019 and 2020<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

First for you to know: This section has nothing to do with prediction and I am not an analyst. It’s just my opinion<\/strong> like all sentences on this blog. But I am sure that nobody can predict the future<\/strong> and it’s just interesting to read about different thoughts to form your own view of the markets.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In addition to that I am not starting with the big picture. In the following chart you can see the daily candles of the SPY<\/strong> like in every weekly summary here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPY – daily chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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SPY<\/strong> (daily candles, 1 year, source: thinkorswim)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

While watching the chart you clearly see the start of the bullish move<\/strong> with its low at Christmas<\/strong> 2018. Then we went into this range. During the sideways move<\/strong> most of the portfolios I know crossed the zero line one or more times. But when re-testing the $302 level for the third time, the breakout happened in October<\/strong> 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now we’re in a new long uptrend? Is it the beginning? Are we much too overstretched? Will we reach new highs? Will the crash happen in 2020?
… no one knows!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, we are overbought and of course, there will be a reversal to the downside soon. But if it’s to the 50 moving average around the lower bollinger band, the 150 or 200 moving average or just a bounce on the $315 …? I am sorry, I can’t tell you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What I know is that although we had many green weeks in a row<\/strong> the movement was notable often within the expected move<\/strong> (the weekly EM is calculated by the implied volatility among other values and shows an area where the contract will probably move in the following week<\/em>). Therefore the market is overbought<\/strong> but there’s no signal for an unusual and insane movement<\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But let’s check the weekly chart …<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPY – weekly chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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SPY<\/strong> (weekly candles, source: thinkorswim)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the weekly chart you recognize the sideways move<\/strong> in 2018 and the continuation with the Christmas peak in 2019 before the breakout<\/strong> in October.
After the break above the ranging market we had 8 out of 9 weeks in green<\/strong>. Those candles are lined up along a clear trend line<\/strong> without any “errors”. Of course, like I said, we have to expect a correction but I am just cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s sum up:<\/p>\n\n\n\n