{"id":446,"date":"2020-02-23T18:52:11","date_gmt":"2020-02-23T17:52:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/market-and-us.com\/blog\/?p=446"},"modified":"2020-02-23T18:52:12","modified_gmt":"2020-02-23T17:52:12","slug":"down-as-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-and-us.com\/blog\/down-as-expected-446\/","title":{"rendered":"Down as expected"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

During the market hours my focus is on trading the futures<\/strong> but of course, I am preparing my swings and options before market open. It’s such an interesting period of my trading journey. I like it.
And while I am more and more learning to include the big picture<\/strong> in my plans the market turned down as expected in sharp moves intraday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What level will be reached?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
SPY<\/strong> (daily candles, source: thinkorswim)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sideways or a little pullback. Yes, I was right last week<\/a>. Now the big question is where the reversal will take place:

A) The bulls could buy the dip<\/strong> at the current level of $332 already on Monday. Then, I would expect a small move to the downside intraday before the price moves in the direction of Friday’s high.

B) A turn to the upside after reaching the lower limit of the expected move<\/strong> at around $325 is not a strong support but also possible.

C) Or price will fall to $320 to the last low<\/strong>, the bears will try to close below and the bulls will catch many stops to buy cheap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All 3 moves are possible. But for me, it is more likely to see (A) or (C)<\/strong>. The first signal will give us the futures opening in about 5 hours. My personal opinion is a probability of 60% for (A) and 40% for (C)<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Portfolio update with two reached targets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This week I did not enter any new swings but I sold credit bull spreads on SPY, AAPL and BA<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
ACM<\/strong> (daily candles, source: thinkorswim)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And while the markets fell down one of my swings “crashed” up and reached my two targets at one day<\/strong>. And as you can see, my third partial is also in a good high profit zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You’re not down and expected a move downwards sooner or later?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I hope so. I am not hedging anything<\/strong> but I should learn it urgently. I do give away a part of my profits because I have no “insurances”. But with learning more about options I will get deeper into protective puts or constructions like the risk twist spread<\/strong> or other crazy names. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like I wrote in the introduction I am paying more attention on the big picture and I do not read any news flow but I wrote a code to get the schedule of the US president<\/a> and the most important economical events<\/a> during the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, I calculated the average daily returns<\/strong> of the main indexes by day of the week<\/strong>. And I recognized that Monday and Tuesday are weak, Wednesday and Thursday are the strongest days and Friday is the loser<\/strong>. Let’s see if I can use it as advantage for my trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enjoy your week and happy trades!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During the market hours my focus is on trading the futures but of course, I am preparing my swings and options before market open. It’s such an interesting period of my trading journey. I like it.And while I am more and more learning to include the big picture in my plans the market turned down […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":456,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[120,119,124,122,123,60,9,29,30,34],"yoast_head":"\nDown as expected - The Market and Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We waited so long and enjoyed the straight uptrend. Now the markets went down as expected. 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