{"id":458,"date":"2020-03-01T14:34:18","date_gmt":"2020-03-01T13:34:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/market-and-us.com\/blog\/?p=458"},"modified":"2020-03-01T14:35:02","modified_gmt":"2020-03-01T13:35:02","slug":"about-corona-the-president-and-a-coming-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-and-us.com\/blog\/about-corona-the-president-and-a-coming-recession-458\/","title":{"rendered":"About corona, the president and a coming recession?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Eh, I wrote about the possibilities A, B and C last week<\/a>. Totally wrong. No one expected such a volatile move to the downside.<\/strong>
Read about corona, the president and a coming recession:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doooooown!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
SPY<\/strong> (daily candles, source: thinkorswim)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Not A, not B, not C. And not D, E, F or G … \ud83d\ude09 The last week was one of the or the most volatile week I ever experienced.<\/strong> While day trading the futures I could recognize that some 5-minute-candles made 10 points or more. On other days 2 or 3 candles moved almost 1 point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now the chart is shouting for a bullish move<\/strong>. Price changed to a unbelievable fast move upwards on the last 20-25 minutes on Friday. This supports the idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I see a high probability in some bullish days next week<\/strong>, maybe over the next 2-3 weeks. But I am quite sure that we will go to the downside again<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

After reading many market analysis reports, for me there are 4 reasons<\/strong> for this correction:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. The corona virus<\/a><\/strong> spreading all over the world step by step. But there will be more concrete scenarios of experts soon. And I do expect them to be much worse than before.<\/li>
  2. Because Bernie Sanders<\/a><\/strong> will most likely not support the stock markets as a president that has been partially priced in.<\/li>
  3. Before elections the institutional traders start with bigger hedge positions<\/strong>. Maybe this supported the correction.<\/li>
  4. More and more companies showed first signals for a coming recession<\/a><\/strong>. And because it is expected for autumn or winter, it is probable that a bear market is starting about 6 months before<\/strong> – soon. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    All four were responsible for triggering<\/strong> this correction. But all four could lead to lower prices<\/strong> with a high probability in my opinion.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    Of course, I will always react to what the candles show me. But it’s helpful to have a picture in mind of what could happen<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Lucky coincidence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Watching the correction, I decided to buy a first partial of another long term position<\/strong>. It had to be a company that would survive a bear market<\/strong> for sure. And so, I chose MSFT<\/strong>.
    For a second partial it has to fall much deeper or make the next big pullback in an uptrend. Here’s my entry I did on Tuesday:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"
    MSFT (1D)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The next one on Wednesday has also nothing to do with luck. It’s just a stop loss<\/strong> of an old position of GE<\/strong> bought in September (I had another one between):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"
    GE (1D)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    But now the one I made a mistake that was one of my good mistakes<\/strong>: ACM<\/strong>. After it hit my 2 targets and I had some good profits I forgot to shift the stop loss to break even<\/strong> and to adjust the order size.
    On Thursday the stop loss at -1R was hit and I had a small loss of the rest of the position. But also, a short position was triggered<\/strong> because the order size was bigger than the shares I had in the market. It’s already a profit of several hundreds of dollars<\/strong> (versus the loss of around $50). But I decided to let it run: If market will fall deeper, I will made more profit with ACM. If we’ll have higher prices I will have a loss but my running long positions will produce much higher profits. So, it’s a kind of hedge<\/strong> now – but don’t tell anybody that this happened to me(!)<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"
    ACM (1D)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    By the way, my futures trading reached over $600 last week<\/strong>. Still with a paper account. With that high volatility. But on Monday I’ll go live<\/strong> again. Cross your fingers that I can continue the green days with real money. \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Excitement<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    I am so excited … oh yes. It’s a big chance if we’ll react wise.<\/strong> Because I am invested almost 100% I will sell some of my mid term positions if we could reach the all time high again. Then I would be prepared for both directions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    If markets will fall deeper, I have enough cash to buy cheap.
    If markets will reach higher highs, I will make profits with the positions still running.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    And because for me it’s more probable that we’ll get into a longer and bigger bear move, it’s the best decision for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So, I encourage you to make plans before anything happens<\/strong>. Be prepared for all possibilities<\/strong> and you’re far away from panic and fear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Now, as you know my opinion about corona, the president and a coming recession, I wish you a wonderful new week, good decisions and huge profits!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Eh, I wrote about the possibilities A, B and C last week. Totally wrong. No one expected such a volatile move to the downside.Read about corona, the president and a coming recession: Doooooown! Not A, not B, not C. And not D, E, F or G … \ud83d\ude09 The last week was one of the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[119,127,128,113,32,123,111,126,125,9,29,30,129,34],"yoast_head":"\nAbout corona, the president and a coming recession? - The Market and Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What was that? Such a fast market correction isn't what everyone expected. 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