{"id":493,"date":"2020-03-22T15:19:43","date_gmt":"2020-03-22T14:19:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/market-and-us.com\/blog\/?p=493"},"modified":"2020-03-22T15:19:43","modified_gmt":"2020-03-22T14:19:43","slug":"my-opinion-about-this-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/market-and-us.com\/blog\/my-opinion-about-this-bear-market-493\/","title":{"rendered":"My opinion about this bear market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Do you know what I noticed? Too often in the past<\/a> I expected bullish moves. So, you’ll know the exact point of trend change to the upside<\/strong>: That’s when I will write about bearish moves in the coming week. \ud83d\ude42
But it’s not yet the case. Hm, maybe. You can read about my opinion<\/strong> about this bear market in the next section:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Down more than -30%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This week I decided to switch to the ES<\/a><\/strong> for the weekly overview. This is the future of the S&P 500<\/strong>, similar to the SPY. Here you can watch the weekly chart of the ES:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
ES (weekly)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The market is down more than -30%<\/strong> from the last high. And there are no patterns in the daily chart for a bounce yet. The next strong support is between 2580 and 2600<\/strong>.
In the hourly chart you can recognize support around the -30% and currently at 2275.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the 2275 will break on Monday significantly then I expect the market to get to 2600 or even lower to the -40% level<\/strong> before turning upwards. But if we’ll see strong bullish moves on Monday the last days’ ranging market could be the (first) bottom<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Here you can see the monthly chart of the VIX<\/a><\/strong> (volatility of the stocks in the S&P 500)<\/em>: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
VIX (monthly)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You’ll notice the exceptional values at the same levels of the market crash of 2008\/2009<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But pay attention on the low of the markets being about 4 months after<\/strong> the VIX high. This would mean that we’ll see the lows in July<\/strong>!<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

What did I do last week?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I did not change anything<\/strong> in my long term account or any swing trades. I just traded the futures<\/strong> everyday. Just in paper account because for some hours the margin was increased to more than $1600 per contract instead of $50 during times of an average volatility and I could not trade during most of the times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But my paper week finished with +$663.28<\/strong> after commissions and fees. On Monday and Friday I had only winning trades. And on Thursday I made some experiments and new kinds of trades that brought me down to around -$850 and after switching to my usual style I recovered and finished the day with +$45.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, I feel good with my trading at the moment<\/strong> and I hope I can try with real money soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Next week I would like to add some of your opinions<\/strong> in the weekly summary after you read about my opinion about this bear market:
Can you send me your expectations?<\/strong>
Or just comment below?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stay healthy, stay green and thank you for reading my lines!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Do you know what I noticed? Too often in the past I expected bullish moves. So, you’ll know the exact point of trend change to the upside: That’s when I will write about bearish moves in the coming week. \ud83d\ude42But it’s not yet the case. Hm, maybe. You can read about my opinion about this […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":499,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[133,93,141,113,9,144,143,142,129],"yoast_head":"\nMy opinion about this bear market - The Market and Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After a week with a lot of sideways action you can find my opinion about this bear market in this article. 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